🔒 Lock of the Day
Boston Red Sox ML
❌ LOSS -$100
Analysis
Base edge +12.7%
Edge
+11.6ppHIGH CONF
Consensus Prob
52.5%
Best Available
40.0%
Best Book
Polymarket
Books Tracked
18
Key Signals
- 😴 Home team on a back-to-back
- 😴 Away team on a back-to-back
- ↔️ Line moved -39.6pp against us (discounted)
- ℹ️ 😴 Away (Baltimore Orioles) 4-in-5 (severe fatigue) — advantage home
- ℹ️ 🔥 Baltimore Orioles on 4-in-5 (severe fatigue) — strong home advantage
- ℹ️ 📉 Line moved against us (-39.6pp since yesterday)
- ℹ️ ⚠️ Our starter Brayan Bello: ERA 5.63 (struggling)
- ℹ️ ✅ Opp starter Trevor Rogers: ERA 6.84 (struggling)
- ℹ️ ⚾ bullpen workload elevated for Baltimore Orioles (recent usage proxy 0.8)
Won A Day Lock Record
58W-42L
Record
$+2491
Units
58%
Win %
Based on flat win unit sizing of $100. Favorite win = +$100. Underdog win = +odds. All picks logged transparently.
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